Politics - which primaries to watch in the next 6 weeks
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Just found this from WSJ - seems pretty interesting:
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Primary elections draw the most ardent voters from each party, and this year many of them are in a combative mood.
Republicans seem ready to punish GOP lawmakers who helped bail out Wall Street. Democrats are challenging those in their party who resisted President Barack Obama's expansive health-care legislation.
In much of the country, each party seems to want candidates who strongly side with the president, or oppose him. Primary season has just begun, yet two longtime incumbents have already been denied new terms: Sen. Bob Bennett, a Utah Republican, and Rep. Alan Mollohan, a Democrat from West Virginia.
Below are some primary races to watch in the next six weeks, starting with Tuesday's elections in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Arkansas.
Arkansas
Democratic primary for Senate
Incumbent: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: May 18
Working a small crowd after a recent campaign stop in Warren, Ark., Ms. Lincoln smiled wryly and said, "It's been a crazy, crazy year."
Many Arkansas voters would agree. Running for her third term, Ms. Lincoln has been careful to distance herself from President Barack Obama and liberal policies. She opposed a government-sponsored insurance program, or "public option," in the health-care overhaul. She opposes the Environmental Protection Agency's effort to regulate greenhouse-gas emissions. She doesn't support legislation to make union organizing easier.
But instead of solidifying her standing in this largely rural and conservative state, her views drew a fierce primary challengefrom the left.
Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has been down eight or more points in most polls. But he has a formidable ally: Organized labor. Unions have poured millions of dollars into the campaign and have mounted a fierce get-out-the-vote effort.
Ms. Lincoln portrays herself as an independent thinker . Mr. Halter says she listens more to her corporate donors and contends it is time for a change.
The wild card: Conservative Democrat DC Morrison, a political novice, could win just enough votes to keep both front-runners below the 50% mark, forcing a June runoff.
Republican primary for Senate
Just about every poll shows Rep. John Boozman far ahead of the crowded field for the Republican nomination for Senate.
So, where's the drama?
It's in the race for second place. With eight candidates, no one may reach the 50% needed to win the nomination outright, which would require a June runoff. Those vying for second believe they can beat Mr. Boozman in a head-to-head race by painting him as a creature of Washingtonan incumbent of sorts, though he is giving up his House seat to run for Senate.
One of the top two contenders for the second-place slot, former state Sen. Jim Holt, tools around in a mock ambulance painted with slogans like "Stop The Barackracy" and "ObamaCare Repeal Unit."
State Sen. Gilbert Baker uses a big blue tarp as a rally prop. It symbolizes the bank bailout, or TARP, short for Troubled Asset Relief Program. He and Mr. Holt opposed the TARP; Mr. Boozman voted for it, saying he had no choice given the shaky state of the financial system.
Kentucky
Democratic primary for Senate
Open seat: Sen Jim Bunning (R) is retiring
Primary date: May 18
This primary has become a test of whether liberal activism or independent conservatism is the best approach for Democrats in a year so tilted against the party.
Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo has run as the conservative, opposing Mr. Obama's health- care plan and abortion rights. He promises independence from the national Democratic Party.
Attorney General Jack Conway has run as the "true Democrat," mobilizing urban and minority voters.
Democrats nationally face a similar predicament: Do they focus on energizing the Democratic base and first-time voters, who registered in 2008 to vote for Mr. Obama? Or do they try to win over independents, who have moved sharply out of the Democratic camp since the 2008 election?
Democratic power brokers in the state have thrown their weight behind Mr. Conway, and national Democrats believe he has the best shot in November. Mr. Mongiardo, who is also a country doctor, held a big lead in early polls, but Mr. Conway has moved closer. The race is a true toss-up.
Republican primary for Senate
For months, this race was seen as the proving ground for the anti-government tea-party movement and its quest to shake up the Republican establishment.
It is beginning to look more like a tea-party coronation.
Bowling Green ophthalmologist Rand Paul, the son of iconoclast Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul and a self-described tea-party leader, has jumped to a consistent lead in the polls over Secretary of State Trey Grayson.
Mr. Grayson is the hand-picked candidate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, Ky.) and the Republican establishment.
Dr. Paul has pledged to press for term limits and a balanced-budget constitutional amendment. Other positions, such as his call to abolish the Department of Education and raise the Social Security retirement age, have Democratic leaders salivating over the prospect of facing him in the fall.
Mr. Grayson has tried to paint Dr. Paul as a man with "strange ideas," citing, among other things, his statement that a nuclear-armed Iran was little threat. But with economic populism dominating many GOP primaries, those attacks haven't yet boosted Mr. Grayson.
Pennsylvania
Democratic primary for Senate
Incumbent: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: May 18
Mr. Specter faces a tough challenge persuading Democrats that he is one of them after spending decades as a Republican.
Following his vote for Mr. Obama's economic-stimulus package in February 2009, Mr. Specter concluded he couldn't win the GOP primary and switched parties. Now, he talks of the times he broke ranks with the GOP when he was a Republican. He has the support of the Democratic establishmenta condition set before he changed partiesand is running ads showing Mr. Obama praising him.
Mr. Specter's challenger, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, a former Navy admiral, portrays himself as the real Democrat in the race. To prove his point, he is running an ad that shows former President George W. Bush campaigning for Mr. Specter.
Mr. Specter is trying to convince voters that his moderation shows he isn't a typical politician. "I think the American people are fed up with the bickering and excessive partisanship in Washington," Mr. Specter says.
The most energized activists say they want adherence to party doctrine. A party-switcher might be unable to answer that demand.
Alabama
Republican Primary for the House, 5th District
Incumbent: Rep. Parker Griffith (R) seeking re-election
Primary date: June 1
Mr. Griffith hit familiar Republican themes last December when he criticized Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as "focused on massive new spending, tax increases, bailouts and a health care bill that is bad for our healthcare system."
But Mr. Griffith at the time was a Democrat representing a district that had given 61% of its votes to Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential contest. His swipe at Ms. Pelosi came as he announced he was switching parties to join the GOP.
Now Republican voters will decide whether he deserves election under the GOP banner.
With Mr. Griffith and two challengers all emphasizing their opposition to the new health-care law, as well as to federal spending and illegal immigration, the race may come down to their biographies.
Mr. Griffith argues that as the incumbent, he has been fighting in Washington to keep defense jobs in the district. Les Phillip, a businessman, says private-sector experience is what Congress needs. Mo Brooks, a county commissioner and former state legislator, attacks Mr. Griffith for his party switch, while emphasizing his own work as a public official.
California
Republican primary for Senate
Incumbent: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: June 8
Carly Fiorina seemed to be the Republicans' dream candidate in their uphill fight to knock off Ms. Boxer. The former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard Co., Ms. Fiorina was a fresh face with lots of money.
Then former GOP Rep. Tom Campbell joined the race, abandoning a bid for governor, and topped Ms. Fiorina in the polls.
Ms. Fiorina struck back with a now-famous video attacking Mr. Campbell as a liberal in sheep's clothing. The video became known as the "demon sheep" ad, as the animals looked strangely Satanic.
The race is a three-way brawl, with conservative State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who is favored by the tea-party movement, lashing out at Ms. Fiorina from the right. He has described her as "a well-heeled, good-in-front-of-the-cameras person who would make a good run at Barbara Boxer but wouldn't win."
In a recent debate, Ms. Fiorina retorted that Messrs. DeVore and Campbell were "career politicians." Mr. DeVore trails in the polls, but some Republicans worry his attacks are driving the eventual nominee to the right, making it harder to defeat Ms. Boxer in Democratic-leaning California.
Nevada
Republican primary for Senate
Incumbent: Sen. Harry Reid (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: June 8
Of all their targets this year, Republicans most want to topple Mr. Reid, the Senate Majority Leader who has become unpopular in his home state. But a contentious GOP primary may prove to be an impediment.
Leading in the polls is Sue Lowden, a former state party chairwoman. She hurt herself recently by suggesting people could barter with doctors for cheaper health care, saying that "our grandparents, they would bring a chicken to the doctor." (Mr. Reid's campaign quickly issued a statement asking, "Has Sue Lowden lost her mind?")
Another candidate, Sharron Angle, a former state lawmaker, was boosted by an endorsement from the Tea Party Express, an activist group. Danny Tarkanian, son of legendary college basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, is also in the mix.
In a recent debate, Ms. Lowden questioned Mr. Tarkanian's ethics, saying the Nevada Supreme Court once sanctioned him. He responded that the transgression was minor and blasted her for having contributed to Mr. Reid's earlier campaigns. Buffeted by the attacks, Ms. Lowden has released an ad saying: "They want to make this about chickens and checksa check I wrote decades ago and a statement they've taken out of context."
Utah
Democratic primary for House, 2nd District
Incumbent: Rep. Jim Matheson (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: June 22
Retired teacher Claudia Wright says she can oust five-term Rep. Jim Matheson by turning out legions of liberal voters in a largely rural district in conservative Utah.
Ms. Wright stunned many by winning 45% of delegates at the Democratic convention this month, to Mr. Matheson's 55%. That was enough to get her on the primary-election ballot.
She says Mr. Matheson's vote against the Democrats' health-care overhaul gives her an opening with liberal voters. Ms. Wright says liberals are out there, it's just that in the past they rarely bothered to vote, thinking their ballots hardly registered in GOP-dominated Utah.
The huge district includes liberal pockets of Salt Lake City and also rural southern and eastern Utah, where conservatie values run deep. Ms. Wright hopes to win votes by talking up her opposition to bank bailouts and her love of the outdoors.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary elections draw the most ardent voters from each party, and this year many of them are in a combative mood.
Republicans seem ready to punish GOP lawmakers who helped bail out Wall Street. Democrats are challenging those in their party who resisted President Barack Obama's expansive health-care legislation.
In much of the country, each party seems to want candidates who strongly side with the president, or oppose him. Primary season has just begun, yet two longtime incumbents have already been denied new terms: Sen. Bob Bennett, a Utah Republican, and Rep. Alan Mollohan, a Democrat from West Virginia.
Below are some primary races to watch in the next six weeks, starting with Tuesday's elections in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Arkansas.
Arkansas
Democratic primary for Senate
Incumbent: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: May 18
Working a small crowd after a recent campaign stop in Warren, Ark., Ms. Lincoln smiled wryly and said, "It's been a crazy, crazy year."
Many Arkansas voters would agree. Running for her third term, Ms. Lincoln has been careful to distance herself from President Barack Obama and liberal policies. She opposed a government-sponsored insurance program, or "public option," in the health-care overhaul. She opposes the Environmental Protection Agency's effort to regulate greenhouse-gas emissions. She doesn't support legislation to make union organizing easier.
But instead of solidifying her standing in this largely rural and conservative state, her views drew a fierce primary challengefrom the left.
Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has been down eight or more points in most polls. But he has a formidable ally: Organized labor. Unions have poured millions of dollars into the campaign and have mounted a fierce get-out-the-vote effort.
Ms. Lincoln portrays herself as an independent thinker . Mr. Halter says she listens more to her corporate donors and contends it is time for a change.
The wild card: Conservative Democrat DC Morrison, a political novice, could win just enough votes to keep both front-runners below the 50% mark, forcing a June runoff.
Republican primary for Senate
Just about every poll shows Rep. John Boozman far ahead of the crowded field for the Republican nomination for Senate.
So, where's the drama?
It's in the race for second place. With eight candidates, no one may reach the 50% needed to win the nomination outright, which would require a June runoff. Those vying for second believe they can beat Mr. Boozman in a head-to-head race by painting him as a creature of Washingtonan incumbent of sorts, though he is giving up his House seat to run for Senate.
One of the top two contenders for the second-place slot, former state Sen. Jim Holt, tools around in a mock ambulance painted with slogans like "Stop The Barackracy" and "ObamaCare Repeal Unit."
State Sen. Gilbert Baker uses a big blue tarp as a rally prop. It symbolizes the bank bailout, or TARP, short for Troubled Asset Relief Program. He and Mr. Holt opposed the TARP; Mr. Boozman voted for it, saying he had no choice given the shaky state of the financial system.
Kentucky
Democratic primary for Senate
Open seat: Sen Jim Bunning (R) is retiring
Primary date: May 18
This primary has become a test of whether liberal activism or independent conservatism is the best approach for Democrats in a year so tilted against the party.
Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo has run as the conservative, opposing Mr. Obama's health- care plan and abortion rights. He promises independence from the national Democratic Party.
Attorney General Jack Conway has run as the "true Democrat," mobilizing urban and minority voters.
Democrats nationally face a similar predicament: Do they focus on energizing the Democratic base and first-time voters, who registered in 2008 to vote for Mr. Obama? Or do they try to win over independents, who have moved sharply out of the Democratic camp since the 2008 election?
Democratic power brokers in the state have thrown their weight behind Mr. Conway, and national Democrats believe he has the best shot in November. Mr. Mongiardo, who is also a country doctor, held a big lead in early polls, but Mr. Conway has moved closer. The race is a true toss-up.
Republican primary for Senate
For months, this race was seen as the proving ground for the anti-government tea-party movement and its quest to shake up the Republican establishment.
It is beginning to look more like a tea-party coronation.
Bowling Green ophthalmologist Rand Paul, the son of iconoclast Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul and a self-described tea-party leader, has jumped to a consistent lead in the polls over Secretary of State Trey Grayson.
Mr. Grayson is the hand-picked candidate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, Ky.) and the Republican establishment.
Dr. Paul has pledged to press for term limits and a balanced-budget constitutional amendment. Other positions, such as his call to abolish the Department of Education and raise the Social Security retirement age, have Democratic leaders salivating over the prospect of facing him in the fall.
Mr. Grayson has tried to paint Dr. Paul as a man with "strange ideas," citing, among other things, his statement that a nuclear-armed Iran was little threat. But with economic populism dominating many GOP primaries, those attacks haven't yet boosted Mr. Grayson.
Pennsylvania
Democratic primary for Senate
Incumbent: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: May 18
Mr. Specter faces a tough challenge persuading Democrats that he is one of them after spending decades as a Republican.
Following his vote for Mr. Obama's economic-stimulus package in February 2009, Mr. Specter concluded he couldn't win the GOP primary and switched parties. Now, he talks of the times he broke ranks with the GOP when he was a Republican. He has the support of the Democratic establishmenta condition set before he changed partiesand is running ads showing Mr. Obama praising him.
Mr. Specter's challenger, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, a former Navy admiral, portrays himself as the real Democrat in the race. To prove his point, he is running an ad that shows former President George W. Bush campaigning for Mr. Specter.
Mr. Specter is trying to convince voters that his moderation shows he isn't a typical politician. "I think the American people are fed up with the bickering and excessive partisanship in Washington," Mr. Specter says.
The most energized activists say they want adherence to party doctrine. A party-switcher might be unable to answer that demand.
Alabama
Republican Primary for the House, 5th District
Incumbent: Rep. Parker Griffith (R) seeking re-election
Primary date: June 1
Mr. Griffith hit familiar Republican themes last December when he criticized Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as "focused on massive new spending, tax increases, bailouts and a health care bill that is bad for our healthcare system."
But Mr. Griffith at the time was a Democrat representing a district that had given 61% of its votes to Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential contest. His swipe at Ms. Pelosi came as he announced he was switching parties to join the GOP.
Now Republican voters will decide whether he deserves election under the GOP banner.
With Mr. Griffith and two challengers all emphasizing their opposition to the new health-care law, as well as to federal spending and illegal immigration, the race may come down to their biographies.
Mr. Griffith argues that as the incumbent, he has been fighting in Washington to keep defense jobs in the district. Les Phillip, a businessman, says private-sector experience is what Congress needs. Mo Brooks, a county commissioner and former state legislator, attacks Mr. Griffith for his party switch, while emphasizing his own work as a public official.
California
Republican primary for Senate
Incumbent: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: June 8
Carly Fiorina seemed to be the Republicans' dream candidate in their uphill fight to knock off Ms. Boxer. The former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard Co., Ms. Fiorina was a fresh face with lots of money.
Then former GOP Rep. Tom Campbell joined the race, abandoning a bid for governor, and topped Ms. Fiorina in the polls.
Ms. Fiorina struck back with a now-famous video attacking Mr. Campbell as a liberal in sheep's clothing. The video became known as the "demon sheep" ad, as the animals looked strangely Satanic.
The race is a three-way brawl, with conservative State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who is favored by the tea-party movement, lashing out at Ms. Fiorina from the right. He has described her as "a well-heeled, good-in-front-of-the-cameras person who would make a good run at Barbara Boxer but wouldn't win."
In a recent debate, Ms. Fiorina retorted that Messrs. DeVore and Campbell were "career politicians." Mr. DeVore trails in the polls, but some Republicans worry his attacks are driving the eventual nominee to the right, making it harder to defeat Ms. Boxer in Democratic-leaning California.
Nevada
Republican primary for Senate
Incumbent: Sen. Harry Reid (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: June 8
Of all their targets this year, Republicans most want to topple Mr. Reid, the Senate Majority Leader who has become unpopular in his home state. But a contentious GOP primary may prove to be an impediment.
Leading in the polls is Sue Lowden, a former state party chairwoman. She hurt herself recently by suggesting people could barter with doctors for cheaper health care, saying that "our grandparents, they would bring a chicken to the doctor." (Mr. Reid's campaign quickly issued a statement asking, "Has Sue Lowden lost her mind?")
Another candidate, Sharron Angle, a former state lawmaker, was boosted by an endorsement from the Tea Party Express, an activist group. Danny Tarkanian, son of legendary college basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, is also in the mix.
In a recent debate, Ms. Lowden questioned Mr. Tarkanian's ethics, saying the Nevada Supreme Court once sanctioned him. He responded that the transgression was minor and blasted her for having contributed to Mr. Reid's earlier campaigns. Buffeted by the attacks, Ms. Lowden has released an ad saying: "They want to make this about chickens and checksa check I wrote decades ago and a statement they've taken out of context."
Utah
Democratic primary for House, 2nd District
Incumbent: Rep. Jim Matheson (D), who is running for re-election
Primary date: June 22
Retired teacher Claudia Wright says she can oust five-term Rep. Jim Matheson by turning out legions of liberal voters in a largely rural district in conservative Utah.
Ms. Wright stunned many by winning 45% of delegates at the Democratic convention this month, to Mr. Matheson's 55%. That was enough to get her on the primary-election ballot.
She says Mr. Matheson's vote against the Democrats' health-care overhaul gives her an opening with liberal voters. Ms. Wright says liberals are out there, it's just that in the past they rarely bothered to vote, thinking their ballots hardly registered in GOP-dominated Utah.
The huge district includes liberal pockets of Salt Lake City and also rural southern and eastern Utah, where conservatie values run deep. Ms. Wright hopes to win votes by talking up her opposition to bank bailouts and her love of the outdoors.
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