Central American Political Situation
Alex_Svenson
Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭
Someone asked about this on another thread and my response was so long, I needed to start a new thread.
Good question about the political situation down there. Frankly it sucks big time. The boarder where Zelaya is camped out is between Danli and Esteli. Most large cigar makers have factories in both places such as Plasencia, Torano, CAO, Oliva, and others. Many of these companies store materials in both places and have shipments going back and forth every week by truck. Now that the boarder is closed, there is no way to get materials. Since each factory may have only a months inventory of tobacco for a certain project in esteli but they warehouse 3 years worth of materials in Danli and bring it in as needed, it is going to screw up production. It has not happened yet, but it will happen in a few weeks for many suppliers. Also, many people buy their materials from tobacco brokers in Honduras and have it delivered to esteli. Not a good situation at all. I travel that road and cross the boarder there all the time. Before the boarder closure, crime shot up big time the last 12 months in Honduras with robberies, kidnappings etc. Now that the boarder is closed I have just decided not not to visit Honduras at all until things improve. It does not effect my job as a buyer really since I can visit the same companies in Esteli that have factories in Danli.
What absolutely blows my mind is how the rest of the world is backing Zelaya. This guy is a Chavez puppet and is heavily influenced by corruption. What the wonderful media here in the US is not telling you is the way thing really went down.
1. Zelayas term ends early 2010, new elections are being held this November
2. Zelaya, wanting to extend his term (which is not allowable by the constitution) decides he wants to stay. Only way he can do it is by Constitutional ammendment which requires an act of congress.
3. Zelaya asks congress to vote on it and consider the measure
4. Legislature declines and refuses to allow him to stay in office stating they will not ammend the constitution which allows for one term only. You see this type of *** happens all the time in latin america and it is exactly how democracy crumbles so the legislature did the right thing here.
5. In defiance of the legislature, Zelaya gets together with his friend Chavez. Chavez funds and prints millions of paper ballots which Zelaya then distributes directly to the people.
6. The judiciary branch of the government advises Zelaya that this is not constitutional and tells him to stop and that the outcome of the vote will not be legitimate.
7. Zelaya rallies supporters for his cause
8. Legislature asks supreme court to issue arrest warrant for Zelaya.
9. There is no measure in their constitution to try an acting president. Only option is to expel him from Honduras.
10. The military arrests Zelaya and put him on a plane.
11. The new government follows line of succession as outlined by their constitution and the head of the legislature takes over as president. In fact, the acting president is from Zelayas own party
The international community is outraged and will not recognize new leadership. They insist Zelaya be reinstated. In an effort to please the UN and other critics, Honduras has made several reasonable offers including bumping up their november elections etc.
I for one applaud Honduras and what they did. As far as I can tell, they acted in defense of Democracy, not against it. Zelaya was making a power play and they kicked his ass out and then followed the line of succession as stated in their constitution. I understand the dangers of military coups and setting a precedent, but this was about as much a coup in my opinion as us impeaching and removing a president from office in the US. Honduras has invited Zalaya back so long as he stands trial. How is that the US is taking the side of Chavez and not supporting Honduras? I just dont get it.
Some of the large speculation revolves around the untaped oil off the east coast of honduras and Nicaragua. Some of the conspiracy theorists think that Zelaya was a friend of the oil companies and that they are the ones pulling all the strings around the world to get him reinstated. I dont know about that. I am just pissed that we cant support the Hondurans. Instead we take away their aid which they need to feed their people and in effect are punishing the masses that cant afford to eat. I dont know, maybe someone can explain it to me.
Good question about the political situation down there. Frankly it sucks big time. The boarder where Zelaya is camped out is between Danli and Esteli. Most large cigar makers have factories in both places such as Plasencia, Torano, CAO, Oliva, and others. Many of these companies store materials in both places and have shipments going back and forth every week by truck. Now that the boarder is closed, there is no way to get materials. Since each factory may have only a months inventory of tobacco for a certain project in esteli but they warehouse 3 years worth of materials in Danli and bring it in as needed, it is going to screw up production. It has not happened yet, but it will happen in a few weeks for many suppliers. Also, many people buy their materials from tobacco brokers in Honduras and have it delivered to esteli. Not a good situation at all. I travel that road and cross the boarder there all the time. Before the boarder closure, crime shot up big time the last 12 months in Honduras with robberies, kidnappings etc. Now that the boarder is closed I have just decided not not to visit Honduras at all until things improve. It does not effect my job as a buyer really since I can visit the same companies in Esteli that have factories in Danli.
What absolutely blows my mind is how the rest of the world is backing Zelaya. This guy is a Chavez puppet and is heavily influenced by corruption. What the wonderful media here in the US is not telling you is the way thing really went down.
1. Zelayas term ends early 2010, new elections are being held this November
2. Zelaya, wanting to extend his term (which is not allowable by the constitution) decides he wants to stay. Only way he can do it is by Constitutional ammendment which requires an act of congress.
3. Zelaya asks congress to vote on it and consider the measure
4. Legislature declines and refuses to allow him to stay in office stating they will not ammend the constitution which allows for one term only. You see this type of *** happens all the time in latin america and it is exactly how democracy crumbles so the legislature did the right thing here.
5. In defiance of the legislature, Zelaya gets together with his friend Chavez. Chavez funds and prints millions of paper ballots which Zelaya then distributes directly to the people.
6. The judiciary branch of the government advises Zelaya that this is not constitutional and tells him to stop and that the outcome of the vote will not be legitimate.
7. Zelaya rallies supporters for his cause
8. Legislature asks supreme court to issue arrest warrant for Zelaya.
9. There is no measure in their constitution to try an acting president. Only option is to expel him from Honduras.
10. The military arrests Zelaya and put him on a plane.
11. The new government follows line of succession as outlined by their constitution and the head of the legislature takes over as president. In fact, the acting president is from Zelayas own party
The international community is outraged and will not recognize new leadership. They insist Zelaya be reinstated. In an effort to please the UN and other critics, Honduras has made several reasonable offers including bumping up their november elections etc.
I for one applaud Honduras and what they did. As far as I can tell, they acted in defense of Democracy, not against it. Zelaya was making a power play and they kicked his ass out and then followed the line of succession as stated in their constitution. I understand the dangers of military coups and setting a precedent, but this was about as much a coup in my opinion as us impeaching and removing a president from office in the US. Honduras has invited Zalaya back so long as he stands trial. How is that the US is taking the side of Chavez and not supporting Honduras? I just dont get it.
Some of the large speculation revolves around the untaped oil off the east coast of honduras and Nicaragua. Some of the conspiracy theorists think that Zelaya was a friend of the oil companies and that they are the ones pulling all the strings around the world to get him reinstated. I dont know about that. I am just pissed that we cant support the Hondurans. Instead we take away their aid which they need to feed their people and in effect are punishing the masses that cant afford to eat. I dont know, maybe someone can explain it to me.
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OBAMA
Hillary
You know, your constant personal attacks and rantings that have nothing to do with the topic at hand have made me lose all respect for you and your opinions. Phobic, Duty, and Urbi, when the latter two still posted here, at least kept to the facts and didn't get personal. You honestly have no respect for anyone so I in turn can not respect you or your views.
"Long ashes my friends."
Its a normal tactic of the left...they don't have facts so they try to insult your intelligence...to 'discredit' you. 'I don't know the answer so instead of playing dumb, I will make it look like you are dumb'...like...'I don't know all the details but the police acted stupidly'. Its disrespectful not only to you but to everyone else that is listening/reading. However, some are dumb enough to believe it.
My first gut reaction was for my own personal attention (i.e. what about prices? availability? New brands???)
Yet then I took a step back and realized that if I never smoke again but it would save the life or family of one person over there... It would be worth it
Now you guys know me as the goofy AHole, and I have never once posted anything serious in "PurosRants" or any other big political matter thread...
But I'm disgusted with myself at how something thousands of miles away is going so bad so quickly, and my only reaction at first was that it has nothing to do with me, and those damn military **** better not *** up my cigar consumption...
ugh... I need a drink...
like i said, i enjoy a political debate. i cant resist.
i never leave political discussion with ill feelings to the arguer. debate and disagreement is good.
to quote Michael John McCrae: this is how i try to look at debate and disagreement in any administrations policy. It is 100% patriotic to question your president, congress, senate, governor, or any other elected official that proposes a policy.
i tend to always argue on the side of individual rights at all costs. I am very much a libertarian.
I think whenever a leader of a country is removed, others rally to him because they belong to the same union! The US must think it could "do business" with Zelaya easier than his successor. Or, they are all a bunch of morons and don't know why they support him.
Thanks for the insight Alex!