election predictions
kuzi16
Posts: 14,633 ✭✭✭✭
anybody got em? im not gunna post min until i see what all of you have to say.
i have a list.
i have a list.
0
Comments
MOST of us will just be glad the damn things are over! haha
urbi... have you ever made a prediction about the past?
who am i kiddin. im probably gunna be wrong on a few and right on a few. here we go:
Obama will Win PA
McCain will win Ohio
the day AFTER the election:
If McCain wins the stock market will go UP but by less than 250 points
if Obama wins the stock market will go DOWN by more than 250 points.
If McCain wins there will be accusations of this country being Racist and that the "Republicans stole ANOTHER election"
The exit polls will be way off no matter who wins.
I have heard rumors of riots in the streets if Obama Loses. I dont think this will happen anywhere but if it does the cities to watch will be:
LA, San Fran, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Detroit.
the further down that list the less likely they are to riot.
again, it does not matter who wins, but whoever does, this will be a one term Presidency. If Obama Wins a "truer" conservative will win next time and if McCain wins we will be faced with another Obama-like figure running against him.
lets see how many i get right/wrong.
Incorrect. If McCain wins, the stock market will drop 150+ points. If Obama wins, the stock market will go up 250+ points. I've seen a lot of the CNBC coverage lately, and they make Olbermann look neutral. Wall St. wants a Democrat.
This prediction is non-parameterized, and its correctness cannot be measured. I agree with the prediction that there will be no/minimal rioting in the event of an Obama loss. I think both candidates have a good shot at a two-term presidency. This seems to be more a product of good timing than good execution.
either way i will be watching both days as much as i can. I requested both off of work. I know i have tuesday off but the day after is still up in the air.
I agree completely.
With the US election five days away, Mr Murdoch criticised Senator Obama's tax policies as "crazy", particularly his plan to hand out tax rebates to most Americans and to increase taxes for people earning more than $250,000. He said Senator Obama's promises to give tax rebates to 95per cent of Americans was "rubbish".
"Forty per cent (of the US population) don't pay taxes, so how can he give them a tax cut?" he said. "But you can give them a welfare cheque which he has promised - a grant of $500 - which will disappear very fast. It's not going to turn the economy around at all."
and
Mr Murdoch said Senator Obama would make the situation worse if he implemented the policies he had promised the American union movement, which represented only 12 per cent of the US workforce, most of them government workers.
"We have the historical precedent of Smoot-Hawley," he said.
"I can't imagine he would do anything as crazy as that. But anything in that direction could add to all sorts of tensions in the world financial system and the world trading system and eventually all the way down to employment. I am not saying all these things are going to happen, but we are living in a dangerous period."
He said the whole world should "fight like hell" for freer trade and the success of the Doha Round of trade talks.
...not to mention the comment to bankrupt new coal power plants because they pollute
something just feels very wrong here.
not that they feel so right with McCain, but Obama will not (can not) fix a damn thing. He may make it worse. McCain also wont/cant fix anything but i feel that he has a better understanding of the uslesness that he represents.
Also if our country faces another attack, as Sen. Biden claims we will, I don't believe Sen. Obama has the backbone to lead our nation and strike back. This will also hurt Sen. Obama's re-election bid should he win.
I believe McCain will win the election partially due to the Bradley Effect. It is very trendy to say "I'm voting for Obama," but a lot of people once behind that curtain will start questioning things like: "Do I really want someone that has no problem "bankrupting the coal industry"?" and "How close were his ties with Bill Ayers?" And of course there is racism which as sad as it is to say, will prevent some people from voting for him. That is of course the wrong reason to make your choice, but it will happen.
as far as racism...
it may be a factor but i doubt it as big as some claim. I think that since most people live a conservative lifestyle (not that we are all conservative in nature but most people are not gay, most people (generally speaking) want less taxes, most people are willing to work for what they want, most people want others to leave them alone, etc...) they are more likely to vote McCain while in the booth. they relate a bit more to lower taxes and what not. ...im also not saying that it is enough to make it a win.
it may not be racism driving people away from Obama but if he loses thats what will be blamed.
Ummm Kuzi, if what you are saying is true then should your country not be in really good shape right now. Your arguement about all of Bush's Tax cuts doesn't hold water. If it did your country wouldn't be tanking right now and bringing down the economy of most other countries around the world. Keeping the rich and corporations dripping with wealth while the remainder of the country pays the bills has been the way most "rich" country's pay their tax bills for decades. So why are we all in such a Piss Poor condition right now? Like the Steve Winnwood song... We should all be back in the high life again. Bush's policies and the monetary policies of most industrialized nations have failed miserably and when this is all said and done those old institutions will not look the same as the day before this all started to unravel. Governments are supposed towork for everybody... not just the rich, we can all see very clearly that doesn't work.
id still like to point out that saying my lower taxes argument "doesnt hold water" itself doesnt hold water. if you can tell me a time where a Tax increase has ever improved the economy then ill second guess myself. If Taxes have no effect on the economy at all then i would rather have the money that i worked for in my pocket.
just another thought: If i am out of work and i go to a rich guy and hold a gun to him and say "im out of work i am taking $100" i go to jail. ...when the government does the same thing out of my paycheck its "fair" and "caring"
both are taking money that i worked hard for. MY money.
our current situation has nothing to do with taxes. It has everything to do with government intervention in an industry that it has no business in, with roots all the way back to carter, nay, the New Deal. also, every economy has ups and downs no matter where the tax rate is set. on average, if people have more money in their pocket they can spend more and that helps the economy. Taxes take money out of pockets.
I don't disagree with that point. But to be honest everybody DOES pay taxes, so the government DOES redistribute wealth (tax money collected from ALL the people) all the time. Every time there is a Tax cut that is wealth redistribution. Every time there is a tax increase that is wealth redistribution. If the private sector was capable and reliable enough to run th eeconomy there would NOT be the mess that there is right now. The rich only reinvest money into the system when they stand to make a suitable profit from that investment. Governments sometimes have to invest in programs which will show no return monetarily, (mass transit) but obviously has a "pay back" to society. The rich would not even consider the fact that Mass Transit can not only save money but also help to solve other issues such as environmental concerns. Why, because there is no money to be made. Under these circumstances it is OK for a government to invest money ( the people's money) into this type of venture. That is wealth redistribution.
Funny how advocates of the free enterprize system believe that government should NOT get involved and that the private sector should run the economy. So why are the PEOPLE being asked to pay for these bailout packages that are turning up all over the world. Why are the rich folk, and or corporations like Mobile Oil (just reported $14.8 BILLION in 3rd quarter profits) not ponying up to the bar and offering to bail the system out? All of a suden free enterprise looks suspiciously like a social system. Corporate Welfare seems to be OK... help bail out the banks so they can continue to throw people out of their homes.
As for the comment that everyone can succeed... well that sure does SOUND good doesn't it? Reality? NOT !
the individual will not endlessly work for the benefit of the masses. im am for free enterprise. i dont support the federal bail out at all. it should fail. they made decisions that caused them to fail. let them. the people should not be asked to bail out anyone. the federal bail out bill was taking money out of my pocket and giving it to a business that has proven that they dont (wont/cant) handle money correctly.
why arent the rich stepping up to bail it out? because its their money and they have every right to whatever they want to with it. ...and frankly, i would not want to invest in a business that is failing and has proven that they cant/wont make a good decision.
we shouldnt take money from any company that has had huge success because others cant, wont, or are unable to be as successful.
Economic Darwinism.
how is that not true? what is stopping people from success? ill tell you who: themselves.
and if you try and say "what about the mentally and physically ill?" ill just have to laugh because that is not who i am talking about. that is a very different kettle of fish.
We were talking about average people not people in special circumstances. I try not to speak / argue debate in extremes. 50 years ago the American Dream was achievable by anyone who worked hard and made correct decisions in money matters. The number of people who find their American Dream nowadays is minuscule. In this day and age money makes money. Working stiffs just don't build empires anymore, and if they tried then the corporations who they would be competing against one day would ruthlessly run him out of business in the first year if they are capable of doing so. Of course you may argue that they were just looking after their own interests and had a right to do so., but that would hardly be an example of someone being responsible for or able to effect their own failure or success.
We were talking about average people not people in special circumstances. I try not to speak / argue debate in extremes. 50 years ago the American Dream was achievable by anyone who worked hard and made correct decisions in money matters. The number of people who find their American Dream nowadays is minuscule. In this day and age money makes money. Working stiffs just don't build empires anymore, and if they tried then the corporations who they would be competing against one day would ruthlessly run him out of business in the first year if they are capable of doing so. Of course you may argue that they were just looking after their own interests and had a right to do so., but that would hardly be an example of someone being responsible for or able to effect their own failure or success.
"50 years ago the American Dream was achievable by anyone who worked hard and made correct decisions in money matters. The number of people who find their American Dream nowadays is minuscule"
not true. people live it every day. the work ethic has in general declined. people feel entitled to things and they feel the government owes them things. people feel that they shouldnt have to work. thats why they dont succeed. I work hard. I succeed. I didnt have money. I dont have a degree. I am living the American dream. Money may make more money but I too can and do make money. you can to. it just seems like the more money I make the more money Uncle Sam takes from me.
maybe that is why its hard to "live the American dream"
I'm not sure if Obama's tax plan will work, or if it will increase the economy, but I'm sure it will help, not make things worse. He already has promised to crack down on imports, raise exports, and keep jobs here (which for some reason makes sense...?). Also for some crazy reason he wants the US to raise production of products to export! His environmental stance is fantastic, as I'm sure in a couple of years the US will be back on the forefront of technology and exports. All in all his plans aren't perfect, but he does have something we haven't had in office for a long time, that is drive, and true belief that change can happen. I really believe that he wants to bring the country up. I just hope he delivers. Anyway we'll find out tomorrow and beyond.
Not saying that us losing jobs is a good thing but what work is required changes with advances in technology and a more global market. Countries are beginning to have niche products/services that they provide. With being an industrialized nation comes the positives and negatives. We have to be willing to adapt to changes in the job market to what is being requested of us not sit back and hope that somebody makes it better for us. Why would I pay someone $30 an hour to work the line of an auto manufacturer when I could pay someone in Mexico $10 an hour? (My job is in IT so it very easily could happen to me) This is going to be the way of life going forward unless we just want to shut down the borders and say that nothing comes in or goes out (everybody can agree that this isn't going to happen).
Wait... Did I say that out loud???